Dear Cap'n John,
I can't say that I'M surprised in the least that the market value of
Amphis has slumped lately like Lincoln at the theatre (What? Too soon?),
since I believe that the dramatic leaps and bounds in overall values
seen from roughly 2003 or 2004 through 2007 seemed to have largely been
fueled by all that "easy money" that was out there (i.e. folks cashing
out their ballooning home equity) and from a concommitantly also-booming
stock market, itself having recovered (and then some) overall from that
dotcom bubble burst of 2001.
So, no surprise really: We just had herds of irrationally exuberant
toyseekers with fistfuls of "extra" semolians chasing a limited quantity
of Scooby Snacks or whatever...Now, the herds are fearfully pulling
back, some head-in-sand, retrenching and perhaps wondering whether 2009
might find them in the public library googling recipes for Alpo
meatloaf. (Tip: it's all in the gravy, baby.)
The high water mark in OVERALL values must have been in the months
shortly after that Scottsdale auction where some rather choice Amphi
hauled in a high bid of something like $140,000, reportedly caused more
because a couple of guys got in a bidders' pissing contest than from any
real intrinsic grounds. The effect of that auction amongst the Amphicar
squadron at large, of course, was to immediately hoist EVERYbody's
expectations as to what their own old patch job of a rust bucket must be
worth (and also to thoroughly vindicate Hugh Gordon, who'd been going on
and on for as long as I've known him about how we'd see "hundred
thousand dollar Amphicars" one day).
Perception became, at least partly and for a time, reality, and so
presto!: Any leaking chumbucket of an Amphi that could drag itself into
and then (if only in theory) OUT of the drink suddenly at least doubled
or sometimes tripled or quadrupled in value (or at least asking price).
Even those hitherto economically marginally viable sub-$10 grand
"project cars" that could be got all day and night by the baker's dozen
in the late '90s and were often, frankly, scarcely worth the cost of
restoring when a decent swimmer could be had for maybe $12 to 20 grand
(depending on the season, condition and location), suddenly became WORTH
restoring, and many were. So, that, as far as I am concerned, being
neither a seller nor potential buyer, was the upside of all this
"irrational exuberance"...namely, causing more happily working Amphis to
be out there. More Amphis means more fun, and that's a fine thing.
Conversely, the (hopefully) temporary downside of the price boom was
that too many restored "investment Amphis" were suddenly considered too
intrinsically valuable to have any damned fun with. Hopefully, at least
some of these "trailer queens" that never get wetter than [insert saucy
metaphor here] may be dethroned one day soon to fully live out their
true destinies as swimming Amphicars, as "Hansi" intended.
So, where will Amphi prices go from here? Well, DOWN, of course...at
least in the short term. And while it will clearly be some time before
we see any more $100+ Grand Amphis rolling off the auction blocks, that
day may come again much sooner than you think, but for a rather
different reason than before: namely a very likely plunge in the real
value of a buck, which now seems all but foreordained to soon be getting
far less bang for, well...itself. Those ruinous costs all put on the
cuff for the various wars, bailouts...oh, excuse me...I mean "rescue
packages"...and all the other looming lumbering deficit beasts that are
keeping my nextdoor neighbors in the Bureau of Engraving & Printing
churning out those greenbacks in triple shifts through the night to pay
all those multiple pipers will be felt by us all. More dollars chasing
limited Amphicars (or tangerines or jugs of my all-natural Viagrunt®
male enhancement ointment) will simply mean that each dollar will be
worth less. Trillions in recent "paper losses" may buffer the effects
of a wave of cheapened bucks in the short term, but not forever. So,
your $25,000 run-of-the-mill Plain Jane Amphi may indeed soon command
$100,000 or more in a few years...But then again, that can of Alpo will
be costing you $4 by then. (Tip: Try the Chicken and Rice flavor!)
The good news is that unlike your greenbacks, Amphicars will likely hold
and even increase in value in real terms once any kind of equilibrium
reasserts itself for better or worse. Things do tend to right
themselves over time. When hard times or even just the FEAR of hard
times looms, "luxury items" are always the first to feel the penny
pinching. Few but perhaps some river or lake island dwellers really
"need" an Amphicar as a practical matter any more than most folks "need"
a LearJet or an emerald-encrusted umbrella stand. But the good news is
that unlike other purely indulgent commodities, Amphicars will always
sport that bullet-proof visceral appeal that umbrella stands will always
lack, no matter how shiny they are. I believe that the slightly
off-center, even "goofy" appeal of any Amphicar transcends mere "luxury"
to touch somehow on the realm of transcendant spiritual yearnings in
some ineffable way. I saw firsthand proof of this mysterious
transcendence the very first year I had my own OLD BUOY and drove it to
that Carlisle Auto Show in Pennsylvania. Those who've been will attest
as to how tight parking is during the Festival, with the locals selling
spots in their front yards. I ended up snuggling OLD BUOY in a spot
between a Lamborghini and a gorgeous Rolls Silver Shadow whose hood
ornament alone would have commanded more mammon than I had paid to bring
my OLD BUOY home. When I came back from the fairgrounds, I was treated
to the sight of a crowd basically using both the Rolls and Lamborghini
as bum pads, all facing my crusty old Amphi with its goiterous
puss-colored bondoed quarterpanels seemingly patched up by volunteers
from the Columbia Lighthouse for the Blind. THAT'S when I realized
Amphicars were the trump card of luxury vehicles...transcendently, so.
To echo those Visa commercials, "Driving you car into the lake:
Priceless." So, if you've got an Amphi, you've been blessed, no matter
what you paid for it or into it...Yes, even that "Hey, did I REALLY
spend $140,000 for some boat-car yesterday?", guy.
On a more mundane level, the REAL trend to acknowledge in bedrock
Amphicar valuation wasn't the recently-burst bubble of way too much dumb
money looking for "alternative investment vehicles" driving up prices in
leapfrogging paces reminiscent of that other avaricious pastime of the
Big Bubble, "house flipping." No, the REAL trend has been that the
Internet has thoroughly transformed the whole market for Amphicars from
what had been a local or at best fringe "enthusiasts-only" market into
an easy-to-enter international one. After all, I found my own OLD BUOY
in 1994 by calling an old phone number for the former owners club's
President that I painstakingly dug out of an old edition of the
'Encyclopedia of Associations', which was the source one turned to
before the web came along if you wanted to find, say, The Nancy Sinatra
Fan Club or maybe some kind of amphibious vehicle support group. I
mean, before "the web" took off, one had to really WANT an Amphicar, or
perhaps know someone with one or perhaps serendipitously encounter one
to get one. All this has changed. An open marketplace with more buyers
for any relatively scarce commodity means higher prices. It's that
simple.
Once the recent excesses are corrected, and assuming the economy doesn't
get "completely medieval on your ass", as the wise man said, I project a
steady but inexorable appreciation in value. So, if you're lucky enough
tp have one, hold on to that Amphi...Not only will it hold its value on
so many different levels over the long term, but your Alpo will always
taste like foie gras in an Amphi at sunset on a lake.
Regards,
Bilgey
P.S. Why yes, it WAS a long bus ride this morning. Why do you ask?
(i.e. Sorry for this lonnnnggg post)
On Mon, 5 Jan 2009 1:14 pm, CapnJohn wrote:
> I am still blown away at how fast the collector car market dropped.
> Specifically Amphicars. For the last 12 years that I have been
> interested in Amphicars we enjoyed a constant 10%-15% rise in value. In
> the last year they have dropped 25%+- depending on the quality. Better
> cars hold thier value longer while lesser cars loose value quickly.
>
>
